Last Sunday President Trump held a campaign rally in Carson City. The Carson mountain range provided a picturesque back-drop for another outdoor campaign stop. President Trump narrowly lost this State in 2016, 48-45 in favour of Hilary Clinton.
However in 2020 the event seems to have had a massive effect on the early in-person voting figures in the state in the 4 full days since the visit. It seems President Trump has opened up a 20,000 vote lead in this category of voting since the visit. 79,000 to 58,000.
There are two key counties that Trump needs to improve his performance. Clark county and Washoe county. Two urban bases that hold Las Vegas and Reno. In 2016 Clinton beat Trump in the voter rich Clark county by eleven points and it carried her to a narrow 30,000 vote victory.
In the first two days of early in-person voting Biden held a slight edge in this county. However since the Trump campaign stop, Republican registered voters have resoundingly won the daily battle three days in a row.
This has lead to a narrow 3,000 vote lead in Clark county. Remember, Trump doesn’t actually need to win this county. He just needs to get it down to about 4 or 5 %. Current trends indicate that he is having some real success achieving this. See below a breakdown of Nevada by county from 2016 General election.
