So I was beavering away like a good worker bee yesterday – when a notification appeared on my phone from WordPress. For once it wasn’t a complaint about one of my cuckoo ideas or my grammatical incompetence.
The reference is to a post I’d written in July 2018 which basically outlined some reasons why Brexit probably wouldn’t go ahead on March 29th 2019.
I must admit that I have fallen asleep on Brexit negotiations since the end of the summer and waited for the politicians to get to the dead-end I predicted or see if someone could pull some magic trick out of thin air in the intervening period.
Dead-end it is then…ahem…
It seems dead-end day is approaching rapidly – as I did a quick recap on what has been going on in negotiations in the last couple of days. It seems what i was saying in my Brexit Post in July, while not exactly correct – broadly speaking still holds true. On March 30th 2019 the UK will probably still be in The EU or at the very least masquarading as an EU member.
The Question I have been asking myself this morning is a different one though. What do Brexit and Donald Trump have in common?. Or more precisely what do both sets of their supporters have in common. As far as i can tell they have two FEARS in common. Reasonable fears one might argue.
- A fear of mass immigration
- A fear for their economic futures
I am coming to the opinion that both fears are actually linked and that if one fear has precedence it’s actually the fear of mass immigration. I think if the UK and EU were able to come up with a quasi-sensible immigration policy that over 60% of the population of the UK would be in favor of remaining in the EU.
There are two elements to the fear on immigration as far as I can tell. The first is unfettered immigration from certain eastern and central eastern European countries where there is high unemployment and very low average monthly wages. The UK’s worry here is the same as Donald Trumps worry about the Mexican Border.
Illegal immigration across the Mexican Border is economically hitting the lowest paid workers in America. Why pay minimum wage or god forbid increase the low paid when you have a limitless supply of people who are willing to undercut those wages. Many low paid workers or unemployed workers in the UK feel the same about Mass EU migration movements from parts of the Union to Britain.
Although the Brexiteer Vote arrived before the Trump election the Brexiteer’s can learn a couple of valuable lessons from almost 2 years of the Trump Presidency.
Depending on who you believe 3.5 – 4.5 million jobs have been created in the US economy in the last 2 years or so. And just to be fair to Obama there were periods during his presidency where he had decent job growth figures. However the Key Point is that in the last number of months The US is getting Job Growth and rising wages. This to me would suggest that he is having success in reducing illegal immigration and it is starting to pay off in the pockets of the lowly paid.
If this continues it is probably not the type of behavior to get Trump impeached as many Would hope.
The second point on the Immigration issue has particular reference to what has been going on in Syria.
The Syrian Refugee Crisis and the EU
I don’t think you can take in isolation Germany’s decision to take in over 1 million Syrian refugees or the fact that many EU ports in the Mediterranean have been under siege from people fleeing that particular Middle Eastern conflict zone.
The European Union has been faced with a vast migration crisis as result of the war in Syria. And there is no point in denying that a lot of the fear about migration from this part of the world is to do with with the fact that the vast majority of the migrants and Asylum seekers are Muslim.
Below is a diagram outlining the most recent population trends of Muslims in Europe from 2016 which should to a degree reflect that huge intake by Germany in 2015.
While the overall percentage numbers are still quite small the Fertility rates of Muslims is around 2.6 with Traditional European birth rates at about 1.6. Simply put the Muslim communities of Europe are more than replacing themselves while most of the Traditional mix of Europeans in most countries are not replacing themselves.
For me, this links with why Angela Merkel allowed 1 million people into the country in 2015. Undoubtedly there were humanitarian reasons for it but the aging German population mix also was part of the thinking.
In the absence of genuine EU leadership on EU-wide concerns about migration and a host of other issues the Brexiteers managed to carry the day in the UK.
What they have seen in the two years since the vote won’t have done much to change their minds.
At the moment the EU have been somewhat successful in moving to a scare-mongering tactic of the calamitous ruin that will occur if there is a NO DEAL Brexit. They are doing this by heaping pressure on a very weakly positioned UK Prime Minister – Theresa May- with a wafer thin hold on the House of Commons.
That the battle lines of the Brexit negotiations have never moved very far from the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is not an accident. This is a question that has no answer that I can see.
You cannot have a border-less border and control illegal immigration into and out of the UK and Northern Ireland. That is before you consider the greater question of the traffic and trade between the two jurisdictions in question – which i doubt any side of the divide really wants to restrict.
However you can’t guarantee one without sacrificing the other
The back drop to all of this is the mid-term elections in the U.S. – Similar to the equivalent time in 2016 with the U.S. Presidency – the Democrats think they have a majority in the House of Representatives all but sewn up. But like 2016 – Team Trump has taken over the campaign of every Republican Senator and House Member up for re-election; and is finishing the race like fucking Usain Bolt.
He’s turning the mid-terms elections into a referendum about his Presidency.
Now if you only get your news fed to you by CNN, NBC, BBC, The Times from both sides of the Atlantic or the Washington Post – you will probably think that this is an insane thing for the Republicans to let him do.
However for all his alleged erratic behaviour and discourse he is frighteningly consistent on one thing. His big ticket promises to the American People.
- Job Creation
- Negotiating Better Trade Deals
- Tax Reform (or Cuts if your a democrat)
- Foreign policy Iran, North Korea and Israel
At this stage even I know what the Balance of Trade Deficit between the U.S. and China is!
If you watch Donald Trump from his Campaign Rallies you will see how remarkably consistent he is on the above Issues. He is gambling that his message and to be fair some of his results are getting through to the American people. That the Trump base is in fact bigger today than it was 2 years ago. My sense is that he is correct.
If you want a soundbite description about the type of President Donald Trump really is – I think you could do worse than describe him as the first Campaigning President of the United States.
He literally won the election and continued on campaigning!
By the way, I don’t think that makes me a Trump Supporter or a Liberal hater as I am neither
Steve Bannon and the Economic Nationalism
It is not an accident that just like 2 years ago Steve Bannon has started to pop up on the radar, this time on both sides of the Atlantic – Firstly with his documentary – ‘ Trump at War’ – which gives a kind of skewed view of what Trump has been up against since taking office.
But Secondly, as Trump slightly adjusts the narrative to focus on a Trade Deal and all things China, Bannon is doing a full court press on the dangers of China and how basically the American taxpayer has funded it’s development and growth for 30 years without any reciprocal opening of their markets or liberalization of their broader society.
Steve Bannon has spent a lot of the summer and early Autumn bringing this latest born ideology – ‘Economic Nationalism’ to Europe and in particular has had success in Hungary and Italy with Right to Far-Right groupings.
Emboldened by his success framing the narrative for Trump’s final push for the White House he is now taking to the European electorate – So expect to see a lot of him at the Next MEP elections for the European Parliament.
Steve Bannon has reached almost comic book levels of hate amongst liberals but particularly the Liberal media in the United States, so it was with much trepidation that I approached much of his campaigning in Europe on Economic Nationalism’s answer to the Globalist Elites and their destruction of the world in 2008.
Look all I would say is type ‘Steve Bannon’ into Youtube and make up your own mind whether you agree or disagree with his ideas – you won’t be bored i’ll guarantee you that.
His message is gaining increased traction daily with the people who Voted for Brexit and it is the background music in Donald Trump’s Republican push in the 2018 mid-term elections. I have mentioned earlier the influence he has already had in Europe. Many thought when Bannon left the White House it was the High point of his influence. I am beginning to think it may be just the end of the beginning.
Helping get Trump elected was akin to reaching Everest base camp and he and his supporters are preparing for a push for the mountain top over the next few years………
I wanted to give a quick shout-out to Michael Lewis’ new book
The Fifth Risk: Undoing Democracy
Democrats should read it as the path to their true recovery may well lie within it’s pages. As i fear the mid-terms are not going to be the clean sweep they have been envisaging…
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